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If we're in a pessimistic scenario… Anthropic's role will be to provide as much evidence as possible that AI safety techniques cannot prevent serious or catastrophic safety risks from advanced AI, and to sound the alarm so that the world's institutions can channel collective effort towards preventing the development of dangerous AIs. If we're in a "near-pessimistic" scenario, this could instead involve channeling our collective efforts towards AI safety research and halting AI progress in the meantime. Indications that we are in a pessimistic or near-pessimistic scenario may be sudden and hard to spot. We should therefore always act under the assumption that we still may be in such a scenario unless we have sufficient evidence that we are not.
对于 ADHD 患者来说，这个模式和赌场老虎机在神经机制上是同构的。老虎机的设计原理是变比率强化，不是每次都赢，但赢的时刻不可预测，这种不确定性制造的多巴胺刺激比固定奖励强得多。大语言模型的协作过程完全符合这个模式：大多数时候在推进但没有突破，偶尔突然跳出一个关键发现，然后立刻又陷入下一个未知。你永远不知道下一个任务书执行完是平淡收场还是重大突破，但你迫切地想知道。。关于这个话题，体育直播提供了深入分析
但问题是：它们经常停在“叙事推理”、从“结论”出发的逻辑陷阱中——说得很像、验证很少、推导不稳、可复现性弱。