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The risk of rapid crisis escalation triggered by Starlink also manifests in the sharp increase of space satellite debris under the “Kessler Syndrome.” U.S. aerospace scientist Donald Kessler noted that when the number of spacecraft in outer space, particularly near-Earth space, reaches a certain threshold, debris from destroyed spacecraft due to military actions or accidents will trigger a domino-like chain reaction of future collisions, generating increasing debris and impacts, creating a debris belt covering outer space and causing permanent pollution. In 2009, a collision between U.S. and Russian communication satellites produced over 2,000 pieces of space debris. With more satellites, the collision frequency will increase further.54 Starlink is the most massive and representative mega-constellation to date. On the one hand, the increase in satellite launch activities will increase the density of the near-Earth space debris environment, destabilizing the outer space environment;55 on the other hand, the United States pushing for the military application of Starlink enhances preemptive strike advantages and space defense resilience, potentially forcing adversaries to enhance anti-satellite capabilities to maintain strategic force balance, further increasing the possibility of generating space debris. If an attack on Starlink triggers the Kessler Syndrome, it will undoubtedly cause catastrophic consequences such as widespread satellite constellation destruction and the paralysis of space communication and early warning systems.
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